I am going to take a slightly different angle to answering this question than my colleagues. I will assume when you use the word “crash” you actually me “retrace.” It is actually a fair question and rather a wise one because it reveals that one is thinking about asset price cycles. All asset classes have one and the crypto market is not exception. In order to answer the question about Ethereum’s price cycle, one must discuss briefly crypto market cycle dynamics relative to the Bitcoin halving.
The 5 phases of the crypto market are: 1-Bull Market, 2-Bear Market, 3-Accumulation, 4-Expansion and 5-ReAccumulation. Presently, (6/14/21) we are in the Bull Market phase. The market will find its peak later this year. Some have projected, based on days after the BTC halving, around September or October. Whenever the peak hits, it will be followed by the Bear Market phase.
The Bear Market, is often referred to by the media as the “CRASH.” The more accurate term is retracement. In the Bear Market, the entire crypto market pricing drops or “retraces.” In the past, this has been measured with BTC retracing around 80% of its peak price and the rest of the digital assets retracing 90% of their peak price. For ETH, its ATH was around $1,432 on 1/13/18 and its low $82.83 on 1/15/18 which was a 94% retracement.
The question many in the crypto space are asking…. what will the retracement levels be this time. With so much corporate and institutional investment influencing pricing to the upside many are speculating that the retracement levels may not go down as low as they have in the past. At this point it is anyone’s guess.
The question is about Ethereum’s maximum price at the peak of the bull market. Well here is my prediction….
While at the moment (6/14/21) is at $2,583. $27,000 might seem out of the question. I would recommend watching the video to see how I came up with this price level. I would also recommend listening to Bitboy Crypto and Raoul Pal. Their POV as investors will leave your jaw dropping!!!
While I have answered you question, let’s “retrace back” a minute. If ETH hits $20,000 or $27,000 in this bull market will it retrace back 94% to $1,200 or $1,620 in the bear market phase of the cycle? Personally, I think not. The corporate and institutional investors have changed the crypto market price dynamics. There are other factors as well. ETH will retrace, but I would expect more of a 80%-85% range than 94%. This would give us a retracement range for ETH of $3,000 – $5,400. I must remind you this is not a prediction only possible projection.
Hope this helps, good luck with your investing and feel free to join the CryptoNovus community. I am a crypto investor, entrepreneur and creator of the channel. I enjoy the crypto community and we are going to have a lot of fun this year in the world of crypto!!
Christopher Brown, Executive Director of FaithFinance at FaithFinance (2018-present)
Executive Director of FaithFinance
new book, CryptoNovus Cryptionary